Demographic Transition to Stability

It took humankind 200,000 years to reach a billion in population, but only 200 to reach 7 Billion.. This trend suggests some very apocalyptic images for our future. However, the UN forecasts that the 12 billionth human will never be born at all.

Why and how may this be true?

Population explosion is defined as a sudden increase in population of a region due to various catalysts. The first one was the advent of farming which allowed for settlements. And the last two centuries have had some of the most intense developments like the industrial revolution and the rapid growth of advanced sciences.

Almost every country in the world goes through a demographic transition which includes 4 phases. In the 1800s, most European nations too had severe poverty, famines, poor health and low life expectancies. A woman had around 6-7 kids but even then only 2 would make it to adulthood.

The second phase sees the growth of living conditions in the region…. as we see with the industrial revolution, better work, wages and sanitation. This leads to a lower death rate. However, the fertility stayed at 6-7 kids per woman for a generation or two. But in this case, all of them would make it to adulthood. And there it is! A population surge!

The third phase is when the population actually tapers off. The next generations begin having fewer kids and families afford better living conditions. Birth and death rates are slowly set into a delicate balance and the region reaches the fourth stage. Stability.

All developed countries underwent these changes. The disparity arises only because of the headstart they had. With a stable population, the quality of the people is improved. Third world problems of poverty, chaos, and instability are solved from the root cause, the people themselves.

This is why programs which help people living in poverty and famish are important. They may seem profligate and effective for only one generation but what they are doing, is not solving the problem itself….but kickstarting a far greater process.. The transition to stability.

(Thumbnail image - Shutterstock)

Comments

An Ode to Rain

An Ode to Rain “So what’s your favourite time of the year?” she asked, swinging a crossed foot lazily in the air, as she swirled a stirrer in a tiny cup of hot chocolate. Perhaps the time when I used to lick melted drops of vanilla from the back of my hand? blind to the fact that I was painting a modern art piece on the pavement with ice cream. What a charming memory. Summer, I should say. What about the little shivers my feet do, tucked away in the layers of heavy blankets, while my nose and ears complain of the biting cold to my toes. Hot soups, lazy mornings, clouds from the mouth when I speak and hoodies with cosy pockets to slide my hands into. Winter beats summer, surely. To be fair, I was born in spring, the perfect gradient from the cold seasons to hot summers. Just the right temperature, reasonably humid with a drizzle of rain here and there. It had never been dramatic enough to create a lasting memory of itself though. Glancing out the cafe’s window to an overcast sky

Mayfly Philosophy

One humid night outside my front door, I was sitting in boredom waiting for the sun to go down so I could maybe catch the twilight dusk. The sky turned dark pretty fast that day and it wasn't nearly as impressive as the day before. Flies started buzzing all around and to my surprise, were suddenly gone. In intrigue, I looked up. Turned out, the light above the door frame had been turned on. Like a pilgrimage, little bugs from all around flew right up to it and made tapping sounds at the glass casing. At first I felt pitiful. For these tiny beings could only have so much energy and were wasting it for no reason. Almost like they wanted to break into the bulb and touch the filament, they battered their heads on the glass repeatedly. Fluttering their little wings with all their might. It was indeed pitiful to watch. Still is, whenever I see them. Near bulbs, tube lights, signboards or open fires. “How could one of nature’s creations be so flawed?” I thought. Moreover, it wasn’t like m

An Admonition to Death

Does it scare you now, when you look down at us? For even at night, We keep the passion of the sun alive. Specks of yellow illuminate the dark earth. A metaphor to life. Raging. Thriving life. Like molten fluid shrinking into cold lifeless rock. The universe is your eternal day. And our eternal night. A curse of slow death. Your curse. Go in vain, shall your effort, For we are creatures of light, Keeping the flame of life ablaze and bright. For every fire of the breathing soul, A dot of yellow orange and white, Rages with a fiery fervour, Against the smothering winds of entropy. We are creatures of light, In a lonely and dark world. But through colder winds of the nights, And the curse of this universe, I assure you. The swathes of yellow and white, Will only grow brighter and stronger, Till the blood of darkness, Drenches my mortal hands. Till it pierces your eyes. You may be our demons, But we are thy saviours. For without our purpose of defiance, Turn wintry and barren, will

Kopfkino

Search This Blog