Demographic Transition to Stability

It took humankind 200,000 years to reach a billion in population, but only 200 to reach 7 Billion.. This trend suggests some very apocalyptic images for our future. However, the UN forecasts that the 12 billionth human will never be born at all.

Why and how may this be true?

Population explosion is defined as a sudden increase in population of a region due to various catalysts. The first one was the advent of farming which allowed for settlements. And the last two centuries have had some of the most intense developments like the industrial revolution and the rapid growth of advanced sciences.

Almost every country in the world goes through a demographic transition which includes 4 phases. In the 1800s, most European nations too had severe poverty, famines, poor health and low life expectancies. A woman had around 6-7 kids but even then only 2 would make it to adulthood.

The second phase sees the growth of living conditions in the region…. as we see with the industrial revolution, better work, wages and sanitation. This leads to a lower death rate. However, the fertility stayed at 6-7 kids per woman for a generation or two. But in this case, all of them would make it to adulthood. And there it is! A population surge!

The third phase is when the population actually tapers off. The next generations begin having fewer kids and families afford better living conditions. Birth and death rates are slowly set into a delicate balance and the region reaches the fourth stage. Stability.

All developed countries underwent these changes. The disparity arises only because of the headstart they had. With a stable population, the quality of the people is improved. Third world problems of poverty, chaos, and instability are solved from the root cause, the people themselves.

This is why programs which help people living in poverty and famish are important. They may seem profligate and effective for only one generation but what they are doing, is not solving the problem itself….but kickstarting a far greater process.. The transition to stability.

(Thumbnail image - Shutterstock)

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